I have been rightfully accused on more than one occasion of diving into a project too deep too fast. I am easily seduced by a complex set of data and find myself immediately absorbed in a vast spreadsheet. I was once told that “if you torture the numbers long enough they will confess.” On several early projects I was praised and encouraged for my brute force analytical approach. Over time I learned all the cruel techniques that would make numbers eventually reveal their hidden truths.
As a new manager I was once asked to join a senior Partner in a discussion with a CEO. The company was successful and had never been a significant client.
I did background research on the company and was allowed to attend the CEO discussion – not to say anything, but to listen and take notes. The discussion was uneventful – even boring – the CEO proudly explained how well the business was running. I diligently took very thorough and complete notes …. even blocks of verbatim quotes !
In the taxi the Partner asked me
“What was your takeaway from the meeting?”
I started rattling off a summary of the meeting ……. well, maybe not a summary – more like a replay. The partner stopped me 60 seconds in.
“What was the most significant thing from the discussion ?”
I muttered a few highlights…..
“No…… not even close…. The most important thing is that their software business is in trouble.”
I thought quickly –
“He didn’t mention anything about the software business”
“Exactly. Frequently the most important things are not mentioned….. good strategists aren’t naïve – they never take things at face value.”
A couple of months later we started a major engagement to help the CEO turnaround his software business.
I slowly came to realize there were 4 key approaches (at least 4) to analysis in a diagnosis or developing a strategy.
1. Where’s Waldo?
The answer is in there somewhere – it just takes a bit of analysis. The source of a quality issue or a clear pricing opportunity can be identified through grinding analysis and it finally pops out- the “torture the numbers approach.”
2. Just Keep Going (extrapolation)
Finding new trends in their early stages and extrapolating can often provide insight …. Sometimes new market segments can be identified by identifying new growth in fringe markets……. not always right but usually informative.
3. “I see a dog” (Pattern recognition)
The analysis indicates some important pattern – much like identifying animals or faces in the clouds. (Surely you saw the elusive dog in "Power of the Dog"). “Connecting the dots” requires some creativity, intuition and interpretation but can also be quite insightful.
However this pareidolia approach can also be very misleading – working too hard on random data can sometimes lead us to see things that are just not there. Connecting dots that should not be connected….
4. Wald or “Silhouette” approach
During World War II, fighter planes were come back from battle with a range of bullet holes and diligent mechanics identified the places most commonly hit. By strengthening those key areas they could increase the survival rate of the planes.
Abraham Wald , a statistician, had a different interpretation. He realized the mechanics had inadvertently succumbed to survivor bias. He suggested that perhaps the reason certain areas of the planes had no bullet holes was that planes that were hit there did not return. This insight led to the armor being re-enforced on the parts of the plane where there were no bullet holes.
Taking a moment to understand the story behind the data frequently is more important than the data itself. The numbers will confess – but a false confession. Taking the story or data at face value is often naïve and can lead to a very thorough and elegant analysis …..that is completely wrong.
Over time I saw many cases where, if I took the time to pause and think a bit, the client story or data painted a silhouette…… the real insights came from the gaps and omissions.
It is so easy, so tempting, to dive in and look for Waldo, project a trend forward or identify a bunny in the clouds. We are frequently under pressure to move fast and show progress. But if we can pause for a moment and think through what is missing, we often find the real treasures.
Hmmmm- what did I naively take at face value this week ?
Just a few thoughts….
Walt
After a big meeting, I LOVE to ask my team, 'What did you Learn?' Not information or data. What did you learn about the human dynamics? About facilitation? I emphasized listening for what ISN'T being said loudly! Walt, I also LOVE the bullet hole story about analysis. Sometimes insight occurs where there IS NOT a data point. That's Elevated Analytic / Insight!